What to Expect from the United Methodist Church Moving Forward
I have had requests for a more detailed analysis of what to expect as the outcome from the three options we have available for us moving forward. Keep in mind, any analysis of the future is an inexact science and comes with implicit biases of the observer, myself included. Nonetheless I will include credible citations to support whatever I see coming.
Currently the United Methodist Church holds all of our property and assets as a church in trust, meaning they own it and we get to use it. For a very limited time, up until December of 2023, we have the option of leaving the denomination with all of our property and assets at no financial penalty. After December of 2023 we will be locked in.
It will require a 2/3 vote of church members who are present at the time of vote to leave the United Methodist Church. If the church elects to leave, the church will then own all of its property and assets. This is a rather unique opportunity offered to our conference and as far as I know only one other. Because of this, most envision a slow trickle of churches out of the denomination over time as they are able to financially arrange for it to happen.
I will write articles on what I see coming with the other options in the near future.
Expect . . . .
The United Methodist Church as a denomination to end in the very near future. Why?
From a study conducted in 2014: “By 2030, the denomination in the United States will either have found a way to turn around, meaning it is growing, or its turnaround in the United States is not possible,” Donald R. House Sr. told the May 19 combined meeting of the Connectional Table and the General Council on Finance and Administration board. “By 2050, the connection will have collapsed.” ~ Donald R.House — a lifelong United Methodist — holds a Ph.D. in economics and chairs the denomination’s eight-member Economic Advisory Committee, whose projections help shape the general church’s budget every four years.
This was before the Coronavirus Pandemic which has dramatically accelerated the decline of all churches. Church attendance nationwide is at 60-70 percent of what it was before the pandemic. Add to that, the Global Methodist Church launched only on May 1st, 2022 and already 90 churches have joined it. Add to that 107 churches from the Florida Annual Conference have declared for the GMC with many more to follow. Many of these churches are among the largest United Methodist Churches in the country.
Church attendance is strongest among conservatives. 1
The decline of the United Methodist Church will be tied to theological decay.
Here is an excerpt from a book written by one who is considered a centrist/moderate, Adam Hamilton, and is pastor of the largest church in our denomination in the US:
“I’ve suggested in this chapter that inspiration is not dictation but divine influence, on both the writer and the readers. I’ve suggested that divine influence on the writers was not qualitatively difference from the way God inspires or influences by the Spirit today. The difference between biblical texts and some contemporary writings also influenced by the Spirit is that the biblical authors lived closer to the events of which they wrote, their writings served as instruments through which God spoke to the community of faith over long periods of time, and these writings are the founding documents of our faith. This view allows us to value the Bible, to hear God speaking through it, yet gives us permission to ask questions of the biblical text and to recognize that some things taught in scripture may not represent God’s character nor his will for us today, and perhaps never accurately captured God’s will.”220 percent of United Methodists polled consider themselves progressive or liberal. Most of that number will be heavily weighted among clergy and bishops. 28 percent identify as moderate/centrist. And 44 percent conservative/traditional, mostly represented by your average congregation member who has no clue as to what is taught in our denomination’s seminaries.
In a survey conducted by our denomination it was asked “whether the primary focus of The United Methodist Church should be saving souls for Jesus Christ or advocating for social justice to transform the world. Eighty-eight percent of conservative/traditionalists said saving souls, while 68 percent of progressive/liberals chose social justice”.
“One question asked respondents to choose the most authoritative source of their personal theology:
The largest group of conservatives, 41 percent, chose Holy Scripture, and
the second largest, 30 percent, said Christian tradition.
Meanwhile, the largest group of liberals, 39 percent, cited reason as most authoritative.
The smallest (group of liberals), 6 percent, chose Holy Scripture”.3
The Church to move left of center.
From the newly elected president of the council of Bishops: “Episcopal areas have had to be nimble as many have shared a bishop with another area. Several bishops have taken on increased responsibilities and are serving with integrity and grace. We are grateful for the determination and spirit with which these areas and bishops have served. This decision will now pave the way for us to provide the leadership needed for the church to fulfill our mission and to position ourselves for the next expression of who God is calling us to be.”4
And also quoted here: “He urged the UMC, even as it suffers defections, to think of May 1 (2022, coinciding with the launch of the Global Methodist Church) as its launch day as well.” “We are the United Methodist Church not interested in continuing sexism, racism, homophobia, irrelevancy and decline,” he said. “What we are interested in is a discovery of what God has in mind for us on the horizon as the next expression of who we are as United Methodists.”5
Politics to dominate the discourse rather than Biblical Theology
From “United Methodist Videos” – Our Denomination’s Official Youtube Channel: “Isaac Simmons came upon the idea of merging drag and spirituality through an unlikely source: 20th century Russian philosopher Mikhail Bakhtin. “He thought the best way to enact systemic change was through joy and carnival … and drag is over the top and joyous,” said Simmons, who in March 2021 became the first openly gay candidate to be certified for ministry in the Illinois Great Rivers Conference of The United Methodist Church. He preached as his drag persona, Ms. Penny Cost, on Pentecost Sunday in May”.
“Last year, Methodist Health Care Ministries, whose logo claims they are serving humanity to honor God, gave almost half a million to the nation’s top abortion provider Planned Parenthood. In 2013, a pro-abortion article was posted on the General Board of Church and Society website and the United Methodist Church opposed the bill to ban late-term abortions”.6
McMurry University provides space for prayer room dedicated to Islam.7
From a United Methodist Seminary: “Iliff recognizes its current 35% LGBTQ student body and 41% racially/ethnically diverse faculty do not yet reflect the dynamic diversity the community envisions”. 8
Duke Divinity School Recites Prayer to the 'Great Queer One,' Who's a 'Drag Queen and Trans Man'9 – “You are Drag Queen and Trans Man and Gender-Fluid, incapable of limiting your vast expressions of beauty. Embodied in us — your creation — we recognize our flesh in all its forms is made holy in you. With thanksgiving, we celebrate your manifestation in all its glorious forms. Blessed are our bodies, blessed is our love. Blessed are we when we celebrate that which the world turns away.”
In spite of a preponderance of evidence such as this, you may hear that nothing is going to change about the church you love. Which might be true in the short term. But project 10 to 20 years from now and I suspect we will have witnessed a top down transformation of the United Methodist Denomination. Again, if it lives to see another 10 to 20 years.
https://www.umnews.org/en/news/what-do-united-methodists-really-believe
Adam Hamilton, “Making Sense of the Bible” – p. 143
Ibid
https://www.unitedmethodistbishops.org/newsdetail/bishops-have-authority-to-call-jurisdictional-conferences-in-2022-16503765?fbclid=IwAR1MRbbN_y4UyyT-bSF-6yquUiSyc5iC3SUG5hMifonVTRwMnMsRXtPRr84
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/religion/2022/04/29/united-methodist-bishops-acknowledge-breakup-imminent/9590456002/
https://www.lifenews.com/2015/05/18/methodist-pastor-says-caring-about-unborn-babies-who-die-in-abortions-is-idolatry/?fbclid=IwAR1n1ut9PoQxMfExBmEueGd0gF337zu_gyxqIMBwcqn7XVyoiemMSGDYnwc
https://blogs.mcm.edu/herald/2019/02/26/love-two-years-later-the-muslim-prayer-room/
https://www.iliff.edu/50in5/
https://redstate.com/alexparker/2022/04/20/christian-divinity-school-recites-prayer-to-the-great-queer-one-whos-a-drag-queen-and-trans-man-n553395